Glenorchy Knights U21 2–2 Hobart City

Glenorchy Knights U21

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hobart City

3/13/2026

Tasmania Southern Championship · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Glenorchy Knights U2127%

×Draw17%

Hobart City56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Glenorchy Knights U21Expected goals in this matchHobart City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

3.23

Glenorchy Knights U21

2.26

Hobart City

3.23

Hobart City creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 25 away

2.05

creates per match

2.00

4.47

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Glenorchy Knights U21

2.05

Hobart City

2.00

allows per match

Glenorchy Knights U21

4.47

Hobart City

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glenorchy Knights U21+0.00on par

Hobart City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenorchy Knights U21 ↓

Hobart City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–35%

3–44%

4

4–00%

4–12%

4–22%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

Glenorchy Knights U21 or draw

44%

Glenorchy Knights U21 or Hobart City

83%

Draw or Hobart City

73%

Winning margin

Glenorchy Knights U21 wins by 2+

14%

Hobart City wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Glenorchy Knights U21 1+ goals

89%

Glenorchy Knights U21 2+ goals

66%

Glenorchy Knights U21 3+ goals

39%

Hobart City 1+ goals

96%

Hobart City 2+ goals

82%

Hobart City 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Glenorchy Knights U21 (draw refunded)

32%

Hobart City (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glenorchy Knights U21 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 4.47 · 19 matches

Hobart City away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glenorchy Knights U21 attack 2.05 + Hobart City defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.26

Hobart City attack 2.00 + Glenorchy Knights U21 defence 4.47 → ÷2 → 3.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Glenorchy Knights U21 scores more

27%

level

17%

Hobart City scores more

56%

Hobart City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hobart City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff