Hoang Anh Gia Lai 0–1 Binh Dinh: Result & Stats

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Binh Dinh

6/16/2024

V.League 1 · Round 23Sân vận động Plei Cu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Hoang Anh Gia Lai41%

×Draw27%

Binh Dinh33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoang Anh Gia LaiExpected goals in this matchBinh Dinh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.17

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.34

Binh Dinh

1.17

Hoang Anh Gia Lai creates 15% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 54 away

1.45

creates per match

1.17

1.16

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.45

Binh Dinh

1.17

allows per match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.16

Binh Dinh

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoang Anh Gia Lai+0.00on par

Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoang Anh Gia Lai ↓

Binh Dinh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hoang Anh Gia Lai or draw

67%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai or Binh Dinh

73%

Draw or Binh Dinh

59%

Winning margin

Hoang Anh Gia Lai wins by 2+

19%

Binh Dinh wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1+ goals

74%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2+ goals

39%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 3+ goals

15%

Binh Dinh 1+ goals

69%

Binh Dinh 2+ goals

33%

Binh Dinh 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hoang Anh Gia Lai (draw refunded)

56%

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoang Anh Gia Lai at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 89 matches

Binh Dinh away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 1.45 + Binh Dinh defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Binh Dinh attack 1.17 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hoang Anh Gia Lai scores more

41%

level

27%

Binh Dinh scores more

33%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hoang Anh Gia Lai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff