Binh Dinh 2–1 Hoang Anh Gia Lai: Result & Stats

Binh Dinh

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

7/2/2023

V.League 1 · Round 13Sân vận động Qui Nhơn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Binh Dinh47%

×Draw26%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Binh DinhExpected goals in this matchHoang Anh Gia Lai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.11

Binh Dinh

1.52

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.11

Binh Dinh creates 37% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 91 away

1.41

creates per match

1.05

1.17

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Binh Dinh

1.41

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.05

allows per match

Binh Dinh

1.17

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Hoang Anh Gia Lai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Dinh ↓

Hoang Anh Gia Lai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Binh Dinh or draw

72%

Binh Dinh or Hoang Anh Gia Lai

74%

Draw or Hoang Anh Gia Lai

53%

Winning margin

Binh Dinh wins by 2+

23%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Binh Dinh 1+ goals

78%

Binh Dinh 2+ goals

45%

Binh Dinh 3+ goals

20%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1+ goals

67%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2+ goals

30%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)

63%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Dinh at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.17 · 54 matches

Hoang Anh Gia Lai away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Dinh attack 1.41 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 1.05 + Binh Dinh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Binh Dinh scores more

47%

level

26%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai scores more

28%

Binh Dinh at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Binh Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff