Hòa Bình 1–0 Dong Nai: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Hòa Bình

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dong Nai

12/10/2023

V.League 2 · Round 6Sân Vận Động Hòa Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hòa Bình51%

×Draw31%

Dong Nai18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hòa BìnhExpected goals in this matchDong Nai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.56

Hòa Bình

1.18

Dong Nai

0.56

Hòa Bình creates 111% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 20 away

0.86

creates per match

0.40

0.72

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Hòa Bình

0.86

Dong Nai

0.40

allows per match

Hòa Bình

0.72

Dong Nai

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hòa Bình+0.00on par

Dong Nai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hòa Bình ↓

Dong Nai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Hòa Bình or draw

82%

Hòa Bình or Dong Nai

69%

Draw or Dong Nai

49%

Winning margin

Hòa Bình wins by 2+

23%

Dong Nai wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hòa Bình 1+ goals

69%

Hòa Bình 2+ goals

33%

Hòa Bình 3+ goals

12%

Dong Nai 1+ goals

43%

Dong Nai 2+ goals

11%

Dong Nai 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Hòa Bình (draw refunded)

74%

Dong Nai (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hòa Bình at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.72 · 29 matches

Dong Nai away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hòa Bình attack 0.86 + Dong Nai defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dong Nai attack 0.40 + Hòa Bình defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hòa Bình scores more

51%

level

31%

Dong Nai scores more

18%

Hòa Bình at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hòa Bình will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff