Hồ Chí Minh II 2–0 Bóng đá Huế: Result & Stats

Hồ Chí Minh II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bóng đá Huế

2/16/2025

V.League 2 · Round 9Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hồ Chí Minh II39%

×Draw28%

Bóng đá Huế33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hồ Chí Minh IIExpected goals in this matchBóng đá Huế

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.10

Hồ Chí Minh II

1.23

Bóng đá Huế

1.10

Hồ Chí Minh II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 51 away

0.86

creates per match

0.96

1.24

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Hồ Chí Minh II

0.86

Bóng đá Huế

0.96

allows per match

Hồ Chí Minh II

1.24

Bóng đá Huế

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hồ Chí Minh II+0.00on par

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hồ Chí Minh II ↓

Bóng đá Huế →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hồ Chí Minh II or draw

67%

Hồ Chí Minh II or Bóng đá Huế

72%

Draw or Bóng đá Huế

61%

Winning margin

Hồ Chí Minh II wins by 2+

17%

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hồ Chí Minh II 1+ goals

71%

Hồ Chí Minh II 2+ goals

35%

Hồ Chí Minh II 3+ goals

13%

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals

67%

Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals

30%

Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hồ Chí Minh II (draw refunded)

54%

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hồ Chí Minh II at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Bóng đá Huế away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hồ Chí Minh II attack 0.86 + Bóng đá Huế defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.96 + Hồ Chí Minh II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hồ Chí Minh II scores more

39%

level

28%

Bóng đá Huế scores more

33%

Hồ Chí Minh II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hồ Chí Minh II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff