Bóng đá Huế 1–0 Hồ Chí Minh II: Result & Stats

Bóng đá Huế

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hồ Chí Minh II

6/14/2025

V.League 2 · Round 21Sân vận động Tự Do

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bóng đá Huế65%

×Draw21%

Hồ Chí Minh II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bóng đá HuếExpected goals in this matchHồ Chí Minh II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.73

Bóng đá Huế

1.89

Hồ Chí Minh II

0.73

Bóng đá Huế creates 159% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 21 away

1.06

creates per match

0.57

0.90

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế

1.06

Hồ Chí Minh II

0.57

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế

0.90

Hồ Chí Minh II

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Hồ Chí Minh II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Hồ Chí Minh II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw

86%

Bóng đá Huế or Hồ Chí Minh II

79%

Draw or Hồ Chí Minh II

35%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+

39%

Hồ Chí Minh II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals

85%

Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals

56%

Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals

29%

Hồ Chí Minh II 1+ goals

52%

Hồ Chí Minh II 2+ goals

17%

Hồ Chí Minh II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)

82%

Hồ Chí Minh II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Hồ Chí Minh II away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 1.06 + Hồ Chí Minh II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hồ Chí Minh II attack 0.57 + Bóng đá Huế defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more

65%

level

21%

Hồ Chí Minh II scores more

14%

Bóng đá Huế at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bóng đá Huế will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff