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HNK Zadar vs HNK Hajduk Split II — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
FT
2 – 1
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
5/11/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 28Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

HNK Zadar81%
×Draw12%
HNK Hajduk Split II7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Zadar
2.96
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.78

HNK Zadar creates 279% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

HNK Zadar
2.86
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.80

allows per match

HNK Zadar
0.75
HNK Hajduk Split II
3.07

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw
93%
HNK Zadar or HNK Hajduk Split II
88%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
19%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+
61%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals
95%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
79%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
55%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
54%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
18%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
92%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.96

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

HNK Zadar scores more
81%
level
12%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
7%

HNK Zadar at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Zadar vs HNK Hajduk Split II

HNK Zadar beat HNK Hajduk Split II 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi in Zadar.