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HNK Hajduk Split II vs HNK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
FT
1 – 2
HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
11/11/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 13Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II32%
×Draw24%
HNK Zadar43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.35
HNK Zadar
1.59

HNK Zadar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 77 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
HNK Zadar
1.58

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
HNK Zadar
1.09

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par
HNK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

HNK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw
57%
HNK Hajduk Split II or HNK Zadar
76%
Draw or HNK Zadar
68%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
14%
HNK Zadar wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
74%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
39%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
15%
HNK Zadar 1+ goals
80%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
47%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
43%
HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

HNK Zadar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.60 + HNK Zadar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

HNK Zadar attack 1.58 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
32%
level
24%
HNK Zadar scores more
43%

HNK Zadar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Hajduk Split II vs HNK Zadar

HNK Zadar beat HNK Hajduk Split II 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.