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HNK Zadar vs GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
10/4/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 7Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

HNK Zadar65%
×Draw20%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Zadar
2.17
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
0.96

HNK Zadar creates 126% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 60 away

creates per match

HNK Zadar
2.86
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.18

allows per match

HNK Zadar
0.75
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.47

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw
84%
HNK Zadar or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
80%
Draw or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
35%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+
41%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals
89%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
64%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
36%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals
62%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals
25%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
81%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.17

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.18 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

HNK Zadar scores more
65%
level
20%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more
16%

HNK Zadar at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: HNK Zadar 3–0 GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

HNK Zadar beat GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi in Zadar.