GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 0–0 HNK Zadar: Result & Stats

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

HNK Zadar

11/2/2024

Third NL - Jug · South - 11Sportski centar Jure Bakotić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica38%

×Draw26%

HNK Zadar36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOŠK Kaštel GomilicaExpected goals in this matchHNK Zadar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.30

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.35

HNK Zadar

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 77 away

1.62

creates per match

1.58

1.02

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.62

HNK Zadar

1.58

allows per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.02

HNK Zadar

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par

HNK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica ↓

HNK Zadar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or draw

64%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or HNK Zadar

74%

Draw or HNK Zadar

62%

Winning margin

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+

17%

HNK Zadar wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals

74%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals

39%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals

15%

HNK Zadar 1+ goals

73%

HNK Zadar 2+ goals

37%

HNK Zadar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)

52%

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

HNK Zadar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.62 + HNK Zadar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

HNK Zadar attack 1.58 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more

38%

level

26%

HNK Zadar scores more

36%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff