HNK Rijeka 0–0 Bravo: Result & Stats

HNK Rijeka

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bravo

1/17/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HNK Rijeka65%

×Draw20%

Bravo16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK RijekaExpected goals in this matchBravo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.94

HNK Rijeka

2.14

Bravo

0.94

HNK Rijeka creates 128% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

2.13

creates per match

1.08

0.80

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

HNK Rijeka

2.13

Bravo

1.08

allows per match

HNK Rijeka

0.80

Bravo

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

Bravo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

Bravo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw

84%

HNK Rijeka or Bravo

80%

Draw or Bravo

35%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

41%

Bravo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

88%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

63%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

36%

Bravo 1+ goals

61%

Bravo 2+ goals

24%

Bravo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

81%

Bravo (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Bravo away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 2.13 + Bravo defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.14

Bravo attack 1.08 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more

65%

level

20%

Bravo scores more

16%

HNK Rijeka at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

HNK4-1-4-1

Bravo3-4-3

7

17

33

16

20

21

30

5

50

18

31

13

3

5

66

28

25

20

4

21

87

89

Manager: D. Raić

HNK Rijeka substitutes

26Radeljić77Veiga23Grgić30Bogojević16Petrović47Pavlović27Ilinković9Obregón7Juncaj99Yansane12Vučetić

Manager: A. Arnol

Bravo substitutes

22Dakic23Hovnik6Gurlica66Hribar29Trdin14Maksimovic27Puconja8Trdin40Gidado11Kerin26Cverle