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Bravo vs HNK Rijeka — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bravo
Bravo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
Z. Trontelj 9'
B. Karrica 85'
7/1/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Športni Park Ruteč

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bravo27%
×Draw23%
HNK Rijeka50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravo
1.23
HNK Rijeka
1.77

HNK Rijeka creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bravo
1.78
HNK Rijeka
2.33

allows per match

Bravo
1.22
HNK Rijeka
0.67

finishing

Bravo+0.00on par
HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravo ↓

HNK Rijeka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bravo or draw
50%
Bravo or HNK Rijeka
77%
Draw or HNK Rijeka
73%

Winning margin

Bravo wins by 2+
11%
HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Bravo 1+ goals
71%
Bravo 2+ goals
35%
Bravo 3+ goals
13%
HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
83%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
53%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bravo (draw refunded)
35%
HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravo at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravo attack 1.78 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

HNK Rijeka attack 2.33 + Bravo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bravo scores more
27%
level
23%
HNK Rijeka scores more
50%

HNK Rijeka at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Z. Trontelj
31'
75'
79'
85'
B. Karrica

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bravo vs HNK Rijeka

Bravo and HNK Rijeka drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 1, 2022.

Goals: Z. Trontelj (9'), B. Karrica (85').

The match was played at Športni Park Ruteč in Kranjska Gora.