HNK Gorica 1–4 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: Result & Stats

HNK Gorica

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

J. Pršir 41'

R. Mudražija 88', 82', 80'

D. Čop 11'

12/21/2024

HNL · Round 18ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

HNK Gorica36%

×Draw27%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchNK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.27

HNK Gorica

1.23

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

1.17

creates per match

1.27

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.17

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.27

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.27

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.30

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.14scores more

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

63%

HNK Gorica or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

73%

Draw or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

64%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

15%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

71%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

35%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

13%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals

72%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals

36%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

49%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.30 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.17 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.27 + HNK Gorica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

36%

level

27%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more

37%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Mudražija

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · M

9.3

Match Events

11'

18'

24'

41'

46'

D. Vuković← L. Vrbančić

49'

Marko Pajač

62'

M. Šlogar← V. Čaić

69'

L. Kapulica← J. Pršir

80'

R. Mudražija↳ D. Čop

82'

R. Mudražija↳ F. Karačić

85'

L. Vrzić← M. Steenvoorden

85'

D. Štiglec← V. Majstorović

85'

88'

90+1'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKNK

Overview

47%Possession53%

16Total Shots13

3Corners6

17Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots13

3On Target6

10Off Target1

3Blocked6

9Inside Box4

7Outside Box9

Passing

47%Possession53%

281Total Passes327

191Accurate Passes217

68%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb beat HNK Gorica 4-1 in HNL on December 21, 2024.

Goals: D. Čop (11'), J. Pršir (41'), R. Mudražija (80', 82', 88').

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 16.

The match was played at ŠRC Velika Gorica in Velika Gorica.

HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb