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Hlučín vs Dolní Benešov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hlučín
Hlučín
CANC
15:00
Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
6/7/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 30Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hlučín60%
×Draw20%
Dolní Benešov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlučín
2.21
Dolní Benešov
1.21

Hlučín creates 83% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 26 away

creates per match

Hlučín
1.69
Dolní Benešov
1.08

allows per match

Hlučín
1.34
Dolní Benešov
2.73

finishing

Hlučín+0.00on par
Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlučín ↓

Dolní Benešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hlučín or draw
80%
Hlučín or Dolní Benešov
80%
Draw or Dolní Benešov
40%

Winning margin

Hlučín wins by 2+
37%
Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hlučín 1+ goals
89%
Hlučín 2+ goals
65%
Hlučín 3+ goals
38%
Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
70%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
34%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hlučín (draw refunded)
75%
Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlučín at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlučín attack 1.69 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.21

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Hlučín defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hlučín scores more
60%
level
20%
Dolní Benešov scores more
20%

Hlučín at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hlučín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hlučín host Dolní Benešov

June 7, 2020: Hlučín take on Dolní Benešov in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hlučín host Dolní Benešov at Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.