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Dolní Benešov vs Hlučín — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
CANC
14:00
Hlučín
Hlučín
4/24/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 25Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dolní Benešov25%
×Draw25%
Hlučín50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolní Benešov
1.08
Hlučín
1.64

Hlučín creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 81 away

creates per match

Dolní Benešov
0.80
Hlučín
1.67

allows per match

Dolní Benešov
1.60
Hlučín
1.36

finishing

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par
Hlučín+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolní Benešov ↓

Hlučín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dolní Benešov or draw
50%
Dolní Benešov or Hlučín
75%
Draw or Hlučín
75%

Winning margin

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
9%
Hlučín wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
66%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
29%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
10%
Hlučín 1+ goals
81%
Hlučín 2+ goals
49%
Hlučín 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
33%
Hlučín (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolní Benešov at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Hlučín away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolní Benešov attack 0.80 + Hlučín defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hlučín attack 1.67 + Dolní Benešov defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dolní Benešov scores more
25%
level
25%
Hlučín scores more
50%

Hlučín at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hlučín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dolní Benešov vs Hlučín — Match Preview

Dolní Benešov face Hlučín on April 24, 2022 in this 3. liga - MSFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dolní Benešov host Hlučín at Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.