Hlučín 2–0 Blansko: Result & Stats | 3. liga - MSFL

Hlučín

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blansko

3/31/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 22Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Hlučín51%

×Draw23%

Blansko26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HlučínExpected goals in this matchBlansko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.25

Hlučín

1.83

Blansko

1.25

Hlučín creates 46% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 77 away

1.69

creates per match

1.17

1.34

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Hlučín

1.69

Blansko

1.17

allows per match

Hlučín

1.34

Blansko

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hlučín+0.00on par

Blansko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlučín ↓

Blansko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hlučín or draw

74%

Hlučín or Blansko

77%

Draw or Blansko

49%

Winning margin

Hlučín wins by 2+

28%

Blansko wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hlučín 1+ goals

84%

Hlučín 2+ goals

54%

Hlučín 3+ goals

28%

Blansko 1+ goals

71%

Blansko 2+ goals

36%

Blansko 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hlučín (draw refunded)

66%

Blansko (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlučín at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Blansko away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.97 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlučín attack 1.69 + Blansko defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.83

Blansko attack 1.17 + Hlučín defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hlučín scores more

51%

level

23%

Blansko scores more

26%

Hlučín at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hlučín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff