Blansko 1–5 Hlučín: Result & Stats | 3. liga - MSFL

Blansko

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Hlučín

8/16/2025

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 3Stadion na Udolni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Blansko38%

×Draw23%

Hlučín39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlanskoExpected goals in this matchHlučín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.67

Blansko

1.64

Hlučín

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 81 away

1.91

creates per match

1.67

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Blansko

1.91

Hlučín

1.67

allows per match

Blansko

1.67

Hlučín

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blansko+0.00on par

Hlučín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blansko ↓

Hlučín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Blansko or draw

61%

Blansko or Hlučín

77%

Draw or Hlučín

62%

Winning margin

Blansko wins by 2+

19%

Hlučín wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Blansko 1+ goals

81%

Blansko 2+ goals

49%

Blansko 3+ goals

23%

Hlučín 1+ goals

81%

Hlučín 2+ goals

50%

Hlučín 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Blansko (draw refunded)

49%

Hlučín (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blansko at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Hlučín away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blansko attack 1.91 + Hlučín defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.64

Hlučín attack 1.67 + Blansko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blansko scores more

38%

level

23%

Hlučín scores more

39%

Hlučín at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hlučín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff