Hlinsko 2–2 Slavia Hradec Králové: Result & Stats

Hlinsko

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Slavia Hradec Králové

4/23/2025

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 17Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hlinsko54%

×Draw21%

Slavia Hradec Králové25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HlinskoExpected goals in this matchSlavia Hradec Králové

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.38

Hlinsko

2.11

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.38

Hlinsko creates 53% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 16 away

1.91

creates per match

1.38

1.39

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Hlinsko

1.91

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.38

allows per match

Hlinsko

1.39

Slavia Hradec Králové

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hlinsko+0.00on par

Slavia Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlinsko ↓

Slavia Hradec Králové →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Hlinsko or draw

75%

Hlinsko or Slavia Hradec Králové

79%

Draw or Slavia Hradec Králové

46%

Winning margin

Hlinsko wins by 2+

32%

Slavia Hradec Králové wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hlinsko 1+ goals

88%

Hlinsko 2+ goals

62%

Hlinsko 3+ goals

35%

Slavia Hradec Králové 1+ goals

75%

Slavia Hradec Králové 2+ goals

40%

Slavia Hradec Králové 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hlinsko (draw refunded)

68%

Slavia Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlinsko at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

Slavia Hradec Králové away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlinsko attack 1.91 + Slavia Hradec Králové defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.11

Slavia Hradec Králové attack 1.38 + Hlinsko defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hlinsko scores more

54%

level

21%

Slavia Hradec Králové scores more

25%

Hlinsko at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hlinsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff