Slavia Hradec Králové 0–0 Hlinsko: Result & Stats

Slavia Hradec Králové

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hlinsko

3/9/2024

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 17UMT TJ Slavia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavia Hradec Králové51%

×Draw22%

Hlinsko27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia Hradec KrálovéExpected goals in this matchHlinsko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.34

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.92

Hlinsko

1.34

Slavia Hradec Králové creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 69 away

1.53

creates per match

1.35

1.33

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.53

Hlinsko

1.35

allows per match

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.33

Hlinsko

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Hlinsko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Hradec Králové ↓

Hlinsko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Slavia Hradec Králové or draw

73%

Slavia Hradec Králové or Hlinsko

78%

Draw or Hlinsko

49%

Winning margin

Slavia Hradec Králové wins by 2+

29%

Hlinsko wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Slavia Hradec Králové 1+ goals

85%

Slavia Hradec Králové 2+ goals

57%

Slavia Hradec Králové 3+ goals

30%

Hlinsko 1+ goals

74%

Hlinsko 2+ goals

39%

Hlinsko 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Slavia Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

65%

Hlinsko (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Hradec Králové at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Hlinsko away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.30 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Hradec Králové attack 1.53 + Hlinsko defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.92

Hlinsko attack 1.35 + Slavia Hradec Králové defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slavia Hradec Králové scores more

51%

level

22%

Hlinsko scores more

27%

Slavia Hradec Králové at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slavia Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff