HK Kopavogur 4–0 Grindavik: Result & Stats

HK Kopavogur

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Grindavik

A. Arnarson 90+3' (pen), 68' (pen), 30'

T. Thorvarsson 88'

2/11/2023

League #168 · Group Stage - 1Kórinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HK Kopavogur76%

×Draw14%

Grindavik10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HK KopavogurExpected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

1.00

HK Kopavogur

2.94

Grindavik

1.00

HK Kopavogur creates 194% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

2.67

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

HK Kopavogur

2.67

Grindavik

1.00

allows per match

HK Kopavogur

1.00

Grindavik

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HK Kopavogur ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

HK Kopavogur or draw

90%

HK Kopavogur or Grindavik

86%

Draw or Grindavik

24%

Winning margin

HK Kopavogur wins by 2+

56%

Grindavik wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

HK Kopavogur 1+ goals

95%

HK Kopavogur 2+ goals

79%

HK Kopavogur 3+ goals

55%

Grindavik 1+ goals

63%

Grindavik 2+ goals

26%

Grindavik 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)

88%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HK Kopavogur at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HK Kopavogur attack 2.67 + Grindavik defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.94

Grindavik attack 1.00 + HK Kopavogur defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

HK Kopavogur scores more

76%

level

14%

Grindavik scores more

10%

HK Kopavogur at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "HK Kopavogur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

S. Runarsson← V. Hauksson

22'

30'

30'

34'

46'

A. Andrason← B. Palsson

52'

A. Atlason

52'

A. Atlason

57'

E. Runarsson

61'

G. Lydsson← O. B. Sigurdsson

61'

B. Adalsteinsson← K. Konradsson

67'

I. Havardarson

68'

A. ArnarsonPenalty

68'

B. Jonsson← T. Magnusson

72'

A. Thorarinsson← T. Asgeirsson

72'

F. Jonsson← F. Jonsson

74'

M. Helgason

74'

M. Helgason

77'

H. Jonsson← H. Jonsson

78'

E. Runarsson

78'

E. Runarsson

84'

H. Jalloh← T. Thorvarsson

88'

T. Thorvarsson

88'

O. Eggertsson← I. Omarsson

90+3'

D. Hilmarsson

90+3'

A. ArnarsonPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff