Grindavik 4–3 HK Kopavogur: Result & Stats

Grindavik

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

HK Kopavogur

K. Viðarsson 78'

A. Jóhannsson 63'

S. Thasaphong 43'

F. Jónsson 5'

Þ. Steinarsson 89'

Ö. Eggertsson 53', 34'

9/10/2022

1. Deild · Round 21Mustad völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Grindavik34%

×Draw21%

HK Kopavogur44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrindavikExpected goals in this matchHK Kopavogur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.00

Grindavik

1.75

HK Kopavogur

2.00

HK Kopavogur creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

1.50

creates per match

1.86

2.14

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Grindavik

1.50

HK Kopavogur

1.86

allows per match

Grindavik

2.14

HK Kopavogur

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par

HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

HK Kopavogur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw

56%

Grindavik or HK Kopavogur

79%

Draw or HK Kopavogur

66%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+

17%

HK Kopavogur wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals

83%

Grindavik 2+ goals

52%

Grindavik 3+ goals

25%

HK Kopavogur 1+ goals

86%

HK Kopavogur 2+ goals

59%

HK Kopavogur 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)

44%

HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

HK Kopavogur away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.50 + HK Kopavogur defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

HK Kopavogur attack 1.86 + Grindavik defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grindavik scores more

34%

level

21%

HK Kopavogur scores more

44%

HK Kopavogur at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HK Kopavogur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

F. Jónsson

13'

F. Jonsson

16'

22'

22'

34'

43'

46'

H. Jónsson← Á. Marteinsson

53'

57'

58'

62'

63'

64'

T. Þorvarsson← K. Karlsson

64'

Þ. Steinarsson← H. Jalloh

65'

K. Edwards-John← F. Jónsson

75'

Juanra← H. McShane

77'

T. Magnússon← K. Frostason

78'

K. Viðarsson

88'

M. Pétursson← B. Runólfsson

89'

Þ. Steinarsson

90+3'

G. Jónsson← K. Viðarsson

Grindavik

HK

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Jónsson

⚽

▼

Viðarsson

Manager: A. Jóhannsson

65'▲K. Edwards-John←▼F. Jónsson

75'▲Juanra←▼H. McShane

90+3'▲G. Jónsson←▼K. Viðarsson

Grindavik substitutes

Edwards-JohnJuanraJónssonGunnarssonTurudijaMajewskiÁsgeirsson

Manager: Ó. Guðmundsson

46'▲H. Jónsson←▼Á. Marteinsson

64'▲T. Þorvarsson←▼K. Karlsson

64'▲Þ. Steinarsson←▼H. Jalloh

77'▲T. Magnússon←▼K. Frostason

88'▲M. Pétursson←▼B. Runólfsson

HK Kopavogur substitutes

JónssonÞorvarssonSteinarssonMagnússonPéturssonÁsgeirssonEyjólfsson

Match Recap: Grindavik vs HK Kopavogur

Grindavik beat HK Kopavogur 4-3 in 1. Deild on September 10, 2022.

Goals: F. Jónsson (5'), Ö. Eggertsson (34', 53'), S. Thasaphong (43'), A. Jóhannsson (63'), K. Viðarsson (78'), Þ. Steinarsson (89').

The match was played at Mustad völlurinn in Grindavík.

Grindavik vs HK Kopavogur — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Grindavik vs HK Kopavogur