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HK Kopavogur vs Fylkir — 1. Deild 2026

HK Kopavogur
HK Kopavogur
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fylkir
Fylkir
B. Gardarsson 89'
P. Aguilera 86' (pen)
8/29/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 20Kórinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

HK Kopavogur47%
×Draw22%
Fylkir31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HK Kopavogur
1.99
Fylkir
1.59

HK Kopavogur creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

HK Kopavogur
2.43
Fylkir
2.00

allows per match

HK Kopavogur
1.19
Fylkir
1.54

finishing

HK Kopavogur+0.00on par
Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HK Kopavogur ↓

Fylkir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

HK Kopavogur or draw
69%
HK Kopavogur or Fylkir
78%
Draw or Fylkir
53%

Winning margin

HK Kopavogur wins by 2+
27%
Fylkir wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

HK Kopavogur 1+ goals
86%
HK Kopavogur 2+ goals
59%
HK Kopavogur 3+ goals
32%
Fylkir 1+ goals
80%
Fylkir 2+ goals
47%
Fylkir 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)
60%
Fylkir (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HK Kopavogur at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HK Kopavogur attack 2.43 + Fylkir defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.99

Fylkir attack 2.00 + HK Kopavogur defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

HK Kopavogur scores more
47%
level
22%
Fylkir scores more
31%

HK Kopavogur at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "HK Kopavogur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
A. Atlason
46'
T. Gunnarsson← T. Gunnarsson
55'
T. Ingimundarson
61'
A. Larusson
72'
K. Karlsson← K. Karlsson
72'
K. Gautason← T. Thorvarsson
72'
T. Jonsson← T. Jonsson
76'
E. Runarsson
77'
B. Kooistra← B. Kooistra
78'
H. Thordarson← H. Thordarson
81'
A. Eythorsson
83'
P. Aguilera
85'
A. Larusson
86'
P. AguileraPenalty
88'
V. Benediktsson← E. Runarsson
89'
B. Gardarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: HK Kopavogur 0–2 Fylkir

Fylkir beat HK Kopavogur 2-0 in 1. Deild on August 29, 2025.

Goals: P. Aguilera (86' pen), B. Gardarsson (89').

The match was played at Kórinn in Kópavogur.