HK Kopavogur 2–2 Fylkir: Result & Stats

HK Kopavogur

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Fylkir

B. Pálsson 90+8'

A. Jónasson 45'

B. Garðarsson 59'

Þóroddur Víkingsson 47'

10/6/2024

Úrvalsdeild · Relegation Round - 3Kórinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HK Kopavogur29%

×Draw23%

Fylkir48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HK KopavogurExpected goals in this matchFylkir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.83

HK Kopavogur

1.39

Fylkir

1.83

Fylkir creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

HK Kopavogur

1.67

Fylkir

2.00

allows per match

HK Kopavogur

1.67

Fylkir

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HK Kopavogur ↓

Fylkir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

HK Kopavogur or draw

52%

HK Kopavogur or Fylkir

77%

Draw or Fylkir

71%

Winning margin

HK Kopavogur wins by 2+

13%

Fylkir wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

HK Kopavogur 1+ goals

75%

HK Kopavogur 2+ goals

40%

HK Kopavogur 3+ goals

16%

Fylkir 1+ goals

84%

Fylkir 2+ goals

54%

Fylkir 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)

38%

Fylkir (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HK Kopavogur at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HK Kopavogur attack 1.67 + Fylkir defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fylkir attack 2.00 + HK Kopavogur defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HK Kopavogur scores more

29%

level

23%

Fylkir scores more

48%

Fylkir at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

T. G. Hafthorsson

44'

A. Arnarson

45'

A. Jónasson↳ E. Sæbjörnsson

47'

Þóroddur Víkingsson↳ A. Ásþórsson

59'

B. Garðarsson

64'

T. Shihab← A. Arnarson

64'

H. Jónsson← E. Sæbjörnsson

72'

E. Ásmundsson← N. Gunnarsson

74'

G. Nunn← D. Fjeldsted

76'

T. Antonsson

77'

S. Stefánsson← B. Garðarsson

82'

A. Gíslason← S. Jörundsson

85'

T. Shihab

87'

B. Pálsson← Í. Jónsson

88'

T. Þorvarsson← B. Burknason

90+2'

B. Jonsson

90+5'

O. Stefansson

90+9'

R. Sigmundsson

90+8'

B. Pálsson

HK

Fylkir

1

Helgason

2

Eyþórsson

5

Stefánsso

27

A

Ásþórsson

20

▼

Jörundsso

11

Hafþórsso

10

⚽

▼

Garðarsso

17

Eyþórsson

9

Præst

18

▼

Gunnarsso

25

⚽

Víkingsso

1

Petersen

4

Leifsson

21

▼

6

5

8

18

▼

Arnarson

9

A

▼

Sæbjörnss

22

▼

Fjeldsted

19

▼

Burknason

30

⚽

Jónasson

Manager: Ó. Guðmundsson

64'▲T. Shihab←▼A. Arnarson

64'▲H. Jónsson←▼E. Sæbjörnsson

74'▲G. Nunn←▼D. Fjeldsted

87'▲B. Pálsson←▼Í. Jónsson

88'▲T. Þorvarsson←▼B. Burknason

HK Kopavogur substitutes

23Shihab33Jónsson7Nunn14Pálsson28Þorvarsson20Ómarsson12Stéfansson

Manager: R. Sigmundsson

72'▲E. Ásmundsson←▼N. Gunnarsson

77'▲S. Stefánsson←▼B. Garðarsson

82'▲A. Gíslason←▼S. Jörundsson

Fylkir substitutes

16Ásmundsson4Stefánsson19Gíslason70Tyrfingsson14Óskarsson21Sævarsson12Ingason