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HK Kopavogur vs Fjolnir — 1. Deild 2026

HK Kopavogur
HK Kopavogur
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
B. Burknason 89'
D. Garðarsson 20'
B. Pálsson 18'
6/13/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 8Kórinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

HK Kopavogur48%
×Draw21%
Fjolnir30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HK Kopavogur
2.05
Fjolnir
1.59

HK Kopavogur creates 29% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

HK Kopavogur
2.43
Fjolnir
2.00

allows per match

HK Kopavogur
1.19
Fjolnir
1.67

finishing

HK Kopavogur+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HK Kopavogur ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

HK Kopavogur or draw
70%
HK Kopavogur or Fjolnir
79%
Draw or Fjolnir
52%

Winning margin

HK Kopavogur wins by 2+
28%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

HK Kopavogur 1+ goals
87%
HK Kopavogur 2+ goals
61%
HK Kopavogur 3+ goals
33%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
80%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
47%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)
62%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HK Kopavogur at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HK Kopavogur attack 2.43 + Fjolnir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Fjolnir attack 2.00 + HK Kopavogur defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HK Kopavogur scores more
48%
level
21%
Fjolnir scores more
30%

HK Kopavogur at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HK Kopavogur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
B. Pálsson
20'
D. Garðarsson
25'
S. Stefansson
28'
B. Gudjonsson
42'
D. Ingvarsson
43'
D. GardarsonMissed penalty
83'
A. Gunnarsson
89'
B. Burknason
HK
Fjolnir
H. Hreiðarsson
Manager: H. Hreiðarsson
Ú. Jökulsson
Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

1. Deild: HK Kopavogur 3–0 Fjolnir

HK Kopavogur beat Fjolnir 3-0 in 1. Deild on June 13, 2025.

Goals: B. Pálsson (18'), D. Garðarsson (20'), B. Burknason (89').

The match was played at Kórinn in Kópavogur.