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Fjolnir vs HK Kopavogur — 1. Deild 2026

Fjolnir
Fjolnir
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
HK Kopavogur
HK Kopavogur
A. Sigursteinsson 16'
D. Axelsson 82', 78'
T. Antonsson 76'
J. Arnarsson 36' (pen)
K. Karlsson 11'
8/23/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 19Egilshöll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fjolnir38%
×Draw22%
HK Kopavogur41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjolnir
1.83
HK Kopavogur
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Fjolnir
1.67
HK Kopavogur
1.86

allows per match

Fjolnir
1.95
HK Kopavogur
2.00

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par
HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

HK Kopavogur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw
59%
Fjolnir or HK Kopavogur
78%
Draw or HK Kopavogur
62%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+
20%
HK Kopavogur wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals
84%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
54%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
28%
HK Kopavogur 1+ goals
85%
HK Kopavogur 2+ goals
57%
HK Kopavogur 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)
48%
HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

HK Kopavogur away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.67 + HK Kopavogur defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

HK Kopavogur attack 1.86 + Fjolnir defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fjolnir scores more
38%
level
22%
HK Kopavogur scores more
41%

HK Kopavogur at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "HK Kopavogur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
K. Karlsson
16'
A. Sigursteinsson
36'
J. ArnarssonPenalty
57'
I. Jonsson
60'
T. Jonsson← T. Jonsson
60'
M. Petursson← M. Petursson
67'
E. Vilhjalmsson← E. Vilhjalmsson
67'
D. Gardarson← D. Gardarson
67'
K. Gautason← K. Karlsson
74'
J. Arnarsson← J. Arnarsson
76'
T. Antonsson
78'
D. Axelsson↳ A. Atlason
81'
B. Gudjonsson← A. Sigursteinsson
81'
A. Arnason← B. T. Hafstein
81'
H. Hilmarsson← H. Hilmarsson
82'
D. Axelsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs HK Kopavogur

HK Kopavogur beat Fjolnir 5-1 in 1. Deild on August 23, 2025.

Goals: K. Karlsson (11'), A. Sigursteinsson (16'), J. Arnarsson (36' pen), T. Antonsson (76'), D. Axelsson (78', 82').

The match was played at Egilshöll in Reykjavík.