HJS Akatemia 2–2 FC jazz: Result & Stats

HJS Akatemia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC jazz

5/6/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 2Pulleri tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

HJS Akatemia45%

×Draw22%

FC jazz33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HJS AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchFC jazz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.66

HJS Akatemia

1.96

FC jazz

1.66

HJS Akatemia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 66 away

2.04

creates per match

1.77

1.55

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

HJS Akatemia

2.04

FC jazz

1.77

allows per match

HJS Akatemia

1.55

FC jazz

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

FC jazz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJS Akatemia ↓

FC jazz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

HJS Akatemia or draw

67%

HJS Akatemia or FC jazz

78%

Draw or FC jazz

55%

Winning margin

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+

25%

FC jazz wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals

86%

HJS Akatemia 2+ goals

58%

HJS Akatemia 3+ goals

31%

FC jazz 1+ goals

81%

FC jazz 2+ goals

49%

FC jazz 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)

58%

FC jazz (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJS Akatemia at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

FC jazz away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJS Akatemia attack 2.04 + FC jazz defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.96

FC jazz attack 1.77 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

HJS Akatemia scores more

45%

level

22%

FC jazz scores more

33%

HJS Akatemia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "HJS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff