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FC jazz vs HJS Akatemia — Suomen Cup 2018

FC jazz
FC jazz
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
HJS Akatemia
HJS Akatemia
5/17/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundPorin Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC jazz29%
×Draw20%
HJS Akatemia51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC jazz
1.71
HJS Akatemia
2.33

HJS Akatemia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC jazz
2.29
HJS Akatemia
2.38

allows per match

FC jazz
2.29
HJS Akatemia
1.13

finishing

FC jazz+0.00on par
HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC jazz ↓

HJS Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

FC jazz or draw
49%
FC jazz or HJS Akatemia
80%
Draw or HJS Akatemia
71%

Winning margin

FC jazz wins by 2+
14%
HJS Akatemia wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

FC jazz 1+ goals
82%
FC jazz 2+ goals
51%
FC jazz 3+ goals
24%
HJS Akatemia 1+ goals
90%
HJS Akatemia 2+ goals
67%
HJS Akatemia 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

FC jazz (draw refunded)
36%
HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC jazz at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC jazz attack 2.29 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.71

HJS Akatemia attack 2.38 + FC jazz defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC jazz scores more
29%
level
20%
HJS Akatemia scores more
51%

HJS Akatemia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "HJS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC jazz vs HJS Akatemia

FC jazz beat HJS Akatemia 4-1 in Suomen Cup on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Porin Stadion in Pori.