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HJS Akatemia vs BK-46 — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2026

HJS Akatemia
HJS Akatemia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
BK-46
BK-46
9/9/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 19Kaurialan kenttä (Hämeenlinna (Tavastehus))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

HJS Akatemia59%
×Draw20%
BK-4621%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJS Akatemia
2.25
BK-46
1.27

HJS Akatemia creates 77% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 11 away

creates per match

HJS Akatemia
2.04
BK-46
1.00

allows per match

HJS Akatemia
1.55
BK-46
2.45

finishing

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par
BK-46+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJS Akatemia ↓

BK-46 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

HJS Akatemia or draw
79%
HJS Akatemia or BK-46
80%
Draw or BK-46
41%

Winning margin

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+
37%
BK-46 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals
89%
HJS Akatemia 2+ goals
65%
HJS Akatemia 3+ goals
39%
BK-46 1+ goals
72%
BK-46 2+ goals
36%
BK-46 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)
74%
BK-46 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJS Akatemia at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

BK-46 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJS Akatemia attack 2.04 + BK-46 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.25

BK-46 attack 1.00 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

HJS Akatemia scores more
59%
level
20%
BK-46 scores more
21%

HJS Akatemia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "HJS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HJS Akatemia vs BK-46

HJS Akatemia beat BK-46 3-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Kaurialan kenttä (Hämeenlinna (Tavastehus)).