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BK-46 vs HJS Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

BK-46
BK-46
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
HJS Akatemia
HJS Akatemia
6/20/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 9Karjaan keskusnurmi (Karjaa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

BK-4638%
×Draw24%
HJS Akatemia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK-46
1.51
HJS Akatemia
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 80 away

creates per match

BK-46
1.27
HJS Akatemia
1.45

allows per match

BK-46
1.55
HJS Akatemia
1.75

finishing

BK-46+0.00on par
HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK-46 ↓

HJS Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

BK-46 or draw
62%
BK-46 or HJS Akatemia
76%
Draw or HJS Akatemia
62%

Winning margin

BK-46 wins by 2+
18%
HJS Akatemia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

BK-46 1+ goals
78%
BK-46 2+ goals
44%
BK-46 3+ goals
19%
HJS Akatemia 1+ goals
78%
HJS Akatemia 2+ goals
44%
HJS Akatemia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

BK-46 (draw refunded)
50%
HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK-46 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK-46 attack 1.27 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.51

HJS Akatemia attack 1.45 + BK-46 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

BK-46 scores more
38%
level
24%
HJS Akatemia scores more
38%

BK-46 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "BK-46 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BK-46 vs HJS Akatemia

BK-46 beat HJS Akatemia 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on June 20, 2018.

The match was played at Karjaan keskusnurmi (Karjaa).