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HJK Helsinki vs Eintracht Frankfurt — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
11/9/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 4Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

HJK Helsinki36%
×Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK Helsinki
1.24
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

HJK Helsinki
1.08
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.00

allows per match

HJK Helsinki
1.50
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.40

finishing

HJK Helsinki+0.00on par
Eintracht Frankfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK Helsinki ↓

Eintracht Frankfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

HJK Helsinki or draw
63%
HJK Helsinki or Eintracht Frankfurt
73%
Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt
64%

Winning margin

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
16%
Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
71%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
35%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
13%
Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals
71%
Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals
36%
Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
50%
Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK Helsinki at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Eintracht Frankfurt away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK Helsinki attack 1.08 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.00 + HJK Helsinki defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

HJK Helsinki scores more
36%
level
27%
Eintracht Frankfurt scores more
37%

Eintracht Frankfurt at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Eintracht Frankfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: HJK Helsinki 0–1 Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt beat HJK Helsinki 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.