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Eintracht Frankfurt vs HJK Helsinki — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
10/26/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 3Deutsche Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Eintracht Frankfurt71%
×Draw17%
HJK Helsinki12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Frankfurt
2.43
HJK Helsinki
0.89

Eintracht Frankfurt creates 173% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Eintracht Frankfurt
2.40
HJK Helsinki
0.77

allows per match

Eintracht Frankfurt
1.00
HJK Helsinki
2.46

finishing

Eintracht Frankfurt+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankfurt ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankfurt or draw
88%
Eintracht Frankfurt or HJK Helsinki
83%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
29%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+
48%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals
91%
Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals
69%
Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals
43%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
59%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
22%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)
86%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankfurt at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 2.40 + HJK Helsinki defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.43

HJK Helsinki attack 0.77 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Eintracht Frankfurt scores more
71%
level
17%
HJK Helsinki scores more
12%

Eintracht Frankfurt at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Eintracht Frankfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Eintracht Frankfurt 6–0 HJK Helsinki

Eintracht Frankfurt beat HJK Helsinki 6-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt am Main.