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HJK Helsinki vs Arda Kardzhali — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
7/31/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundBolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HJK Helsinki48%
×Draw27%
Arda Kardzhali25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK Helsinki
1.38
Arda Kardzhali
0.92

HJK Helsinki creates 50% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

HJK Helsinki
1.08
Arda Kardzhali
0.33

allows per match

HJK Helsinki
1.50
Arda Kardzhali
1.67

finishing

HJK Helsinki+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK Helsinki ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

HJK Helsinki or draw
75%
HJK Helsinki or Arda Kardzhali
73%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
52%

Winning margin

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
23%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
75%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
40%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
16%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
60%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
23%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
65%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK Helsinki at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK Helsinki attack 1.08 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.33 + HJK Helsinki defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HJK Helsinki scores more
48%
level
27%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
25%

HJK Helsinki at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: HJK Helsinki 2–2 Arda Kardzhali

HJK Helsinki and Arda Kardzhali drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 31, 2025.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.