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Arda Kardzhali vs HJK Helsinki — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
7/24/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundArena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Arda Kardzhali54%
×Draw25%
HJK Helsinki21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.60
HJK Helsinki
0.89

Arda Kardzhali creates 80% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
0.75
HJK Helsinki
0.77

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.00
HJK Helsinki
2.46

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
79%
Arda Kardzhali or HJK Helsinki
75%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
46%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
29%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
80%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
47%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
22%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
59%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
22%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
72%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.75 + HJK Helsinki defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

HJK Helsinki attack 0.77 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
54%
level
25%
HJK Helsinki scores more
21%

Arda Kardzhali at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Arda Kardzhali 0–0 HJK Helsinki

Arda Kardzhali and HJK Helsinki drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 24, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Arda in Kardzhali.