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Hittisau vs Austria Lustenau II — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Hittisau
Hittisau
FT
5 – 2
Austria Lustenau II
Austria Lustenau II
5/31/2023Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 29Sportanlage Hittisau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hittisau39%
×Draw21%
Austria Lustenau II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hittisau
1.89
Austria Lustenau II
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 41 away

creates per match

Hittisau
1.53
Austria Lustenau II
1.54

allows per match

Hittisau
2.27
Austria Lustenau II
2.24

finishing

Hittisau+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hittisau ↓

Austria Lustenau II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hittisau or draw
60%
Hittisau or Austria Lustenau II
79%
Draw or Austria Lustenau II
61%

Winning margin

Hittisau wins by 2+
21%
Austria Lustenau II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hittisau 1+ goals
85%
Hittisau 2+ goals
56%
Hittisau 3+ goals
29%
Austria Lustenau II 1+ goals
85%
Austria Lustenau II 2+ goals
57%
Austria Lustenau II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hittisau (draw refunded)
50%
Austria Lustenau II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hittisau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Austria Lustenau II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hittisau attack 1.53 + Austria Lustenau II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.89

Austria Lustenau II attack 1.54 + Hittisau defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hittisau scores more
39%
level
21%
Austria Lustenau II scores more
40%

Austria Lustenau II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Austria Lustenau II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hittisau 5 – 2 Austria Lustenau II

Hittisau beat Austria Lustenau II 5-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on May 31, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Hittisau in Hittisau.