Hitthaller St. Michael 0–3 Frauental

Hitthaller St. Michael

FT

0 – 3

Frauental

11/6/2021

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 7Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Hitthaller St. Michael31%

×Draw24%

Frauental45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hitthaller St. MichaelExpected goals in this matchFrauental

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.72

Hitthaller St. Michael

1.40

Frauental

1.72

Frauental creates 23% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 60 away

1.15

creates per match

1.40

2.04

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Hitthaller St. Michael

1.15

Frauental

1.40

allows per match

Hitthaller St. Michael

2.04

Frauental

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Frauental+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitthaller St. Michael ↓

Frauental →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hitthaller St. Michael or draw

55%

Hitthaller St. Michael or Frauental

76%

Draw or Frauental

69%

Winning margin

Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+

14%

Frauental wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals

75%

Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals

41%

Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals

17%

Frauental 1+ goals

82%

Frauental 2+ goals

51%

Frauental 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)

41%

Frauental (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitthaller St. Michael at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

Frauental away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.15 + Frauental defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Frauental attack 1.40 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hitthaller St. Michael scores more

31%

level

24%

Frauental scores more

45%

Frauental at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Frauental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff