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Frauental vs Hitthaller St. Michael — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frauental
Frauental
CANC
17:00
Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
5/9/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 24Sportplatz Sv Frauental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Frauental50%
×Draw21%
Hitthaller St. Michael29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frauental
2.06
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.52

Frauental creates 36% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 30 away

creates per match

Frauental
1.22
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.07

allows per match

Frauental
1.96
Hitthaller St. Michael
2.90

finishing

Frauental+0.00on par
Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frauental ↓

Hitthaller St. Michael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Frauental or draw
71%
Frauental or Hitthaller St. Michael
79%
Draw or Hitthaller St. Michael
50%

Winning margin

Frauental wins by 2+
29%
Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Frauental 1+ goals
87%
Frauental 2+ goals
61%
Frauental 3+ goals
34%
Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
78%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
45%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Frauental (draw refunded)
64%
Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frauental at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

Hitthaller St. Michael away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frauental attack 1.22 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.07 + Frauental defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Frauental scores more
50%
level
21%
Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
29%

Frauental at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Frauental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frauental face Hitthaller St. Michael (Landesliga - Steiermark)

Landesliga - Steiermark returns with Frauental hosting Hitthaller St. Michael. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Frauental host Hitthaller St. Michael at Sportplatz Sv Frauental.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.