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Hitrino vs Dobrudzha — Third League - Northeast 2018

Hitrino
Hitrino
FT
0 – 3
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
10/5/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 8Stadion Hitrino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hitrino22%
×Draw20%
Dobrudzha58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitrino
1.35
Dobrudzha
2.27

Dobrudzha creates 68% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hitrino
1.96
Dobrudzha
3.25

allows per match

Hitrino
1.30
Dobrudzha
0.75

finishing

Hitrino+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitrino ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hitrino or draw
42%
Hitrino or Dobrudzha
80%
Draw or Dobrudzha
78%

Winning margin

Hitrino wins by 2+
9%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Hitrino 1+ goals
74%
Hitrino 2+ goals
39%
Hitrino 3+ goals
15%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
90%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
66%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Hitrino (draw refunded)
28%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitrino at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitrino attack 1.96 + Dobrudzha defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dobrudzha attack 3.25 + Hitrino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hitrino scores more
22%
level
20%
Dobrudzha scores more
58%

Dobrudzha at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hitrino vs Dobrudzha

Dobrudzha beat Hitrino 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hitrino in Hitrino.