Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dobrudzha vs Hitrino — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
3 – 0
Hitrino
Hitrino
3/28/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 21Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dobrudzha84%
×Draw12%
Hitrino4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
2.64
Hitrino
0.45

Dobrudzha creates 487% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
3.57
Hitrino
0.75

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.14
Hitrino
1.71

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Hitrino+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Hitrino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
96%
Dobrudzha or Hitrino
88%
Draw or Hitrino
16%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
63%
Hitrino wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
93%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
74%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
48%
Hitrino 1+ goals
36%
Hitrino 2+ goals
8%
Hitrino 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
95%
Hitrino (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

Hitrino away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 3.57 + Hitrino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.64

Hitrino attack 0.75 + Dobrudzha defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
84%
level
12%
Hitrino scores more
4%

Dobrudzha at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Dobrudzha 3–0 Hitrino

Dobrudzha beat Hitrino 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Druzhba in Dobrich.