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Hitrino vs Benkovski Byala — Third League - Northeast 2018

Hitrino
Hitrino
FT
3 – 0
Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
11/9/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 12Stadion Hitrino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hitrino78%
×Draw14%
Benkovski Byala8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitrino
2.78
Benkovski Byala
0.80

Hitrino creates 247% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

creates per match

Hitrino
1.96
Benkovski Byala
0.30

allows per match

Hitrino
1.30
Benkovski Byala
3.60

finishing

Hitrino+0.00on par
Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitrino ↓

Benkovski Byala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hitrino or draw
92%
Hitrino or Benkovski Byala
86%
Draw or Benkovski Byala
22%

Winning margin

Hitrino wins by 2+
57%
Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Hitrino 1+ goals
94%
Hitrino 2+ goals
76%
Hitrino 3+ goals
51%
Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
55%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
19%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hitrino (draw refunded)
90%
Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitrino at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitrino attack 1.96 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.78

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Hitrino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Hitrino scores more
78%
level
14%
Benkovski Byala scores more
8%

Hitrino at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Hitrino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Hitrino 3–0 Benkovski Byala

Hitrino beat Benkovski Byala 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hitrino in Hitrino.