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Benkovski Byala vs Hitrino — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
FT
1 – 1
Hitrino
Hitrino
12/9/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 15Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Byala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala45%
×Draw25%
Hitrino29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Byala
1.54
Hitrino
1.19

Benkovski Byala creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

creates per match

Benkovski Byala
1.37
Hitrino
0.75

allows per match

Benkovski Byala
1.63
Hitrino
1.71

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par
Hitrino+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Hitrino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw
71%
Benkovski Byala or Hitrino
75%
Draw or Hitrino
55%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
23%
Hitrino wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
79%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
45%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
20%
Hitrino 1+ goals
70%
Hitrino 2+ goals
33%
Hitrino 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
61%
Hitrino (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Hitrino away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Hitrino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hitrino attack 0.75 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more
45%
level
25%
Hitrino scores more
29%

Benkovski Byala at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Benkovski Byala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Benkovski Byala 1–1 Hitrino

Benkovski Byala and Hitrino drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Byala).