Hirnyk vs Alians Lypova Dolyna

Hirnyk

CANC

15:00

Alians Lypova Dolyna

3/26/2022

Persha Liga · Round 22Stadion SK Hirnyk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hirnyk48%

×Draw23%

Alians Lypova Dolyna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HirnykExpected goals in this matchAlians Lypova Dolyna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.31

Hirnyk

1.76

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.31

Hirnyk creates 34% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 25 away

2.36

creates per match

1.52

1.09

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Hirnyk

2.36

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.52

allows per match

Hirnyk

1.09

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hirnyk+0.00on par

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hirnyk ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hirnyk or draw

71%

Hirnyk or Alians Lypova Dolyna

77%

Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna

52%

Winning margin

Hirnyk wins by 2+

26%

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hirnyk 1+ goals

83%

Hirnyk 2+ goals

52%

Hirnyk 3+ goals

26%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals

73%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals

38%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hirnyk (draw refunded)

63%

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hirnyk at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hirnyk attack 2.36 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.76

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + Hirnyk defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hirnyk scores more

48%

level

23%

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more

29%

Hirnyk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hirnyk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff