Hirnyk 1–2 Alians Lypova Dolyna: Result & Stats

Hirnyk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Alians Lypova Dolyna

11/10/2019

Druha Liga - Group B · Group B - 20Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hirnyk38%

×Draw23%

Alians Lypova Dolyna38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HirnykExpected goals in this matchAlians Lypova Dolyna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

Hirnyk

1.61

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

2.52

creates per match

2.60

0.62

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Hirnyk

2.52

Alians Lypova Dolyna

2.60

allows per match

Hirnyk

0.62

Alians Lypova Dolyna

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hirnyk+0.00on par

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hirnyk ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hirnyk or draw

62%

Hirnyk or Alians Lypova Dolyna

77%

Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna

62%

Winning margin

Hirnyk wins by 2+

19%

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hirnyk 1+ goals

80%

Hirnyk 2+ goals

48%

Hirnyk 3+ goals

22%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals

80%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals

48%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hirnyk (draw refunded)

50%

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hirnyk at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hirnyk attack 2.52 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 2.60 + Hirnyk defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hirnyk scores more

38%

level

23%

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more

38%

Hirnyk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hirnyk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff