Hirnyk-Sport 4–0 Balkany Zorya: Result & Stats

Hirnyk-Sport

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Balkany Zorya

S. Gerasimets 85' (pen)

I. Cherednychenko 75' (pen)

V. Khomchenko 70'

Y. Lozovyi 24'

6/29/2020

Persha Liga · Round 21Stadion Ynist'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hirnyk-Sport46%

×Draw26%

Balkany Zorya28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hirnyk-SportExpected goals in this matchBalkany Zorya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Hirnyk-Sport

1.48

Balkany Zorya

1.10

Hirnyk-Sport creates 35% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

1.01

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Hirnyk-Sport

1.01

Balkany Zorya

1.00

allows per match

Hirnyk-Sport

1.20

Balkany Zorya

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hirnyk-Sport+0.00on par

Balkany Zorya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hirnyk-Sport ↓

Balkany Zorya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hirnyk-Sport or draw

72%

Hirnyk-Sport or Balkany Zorya

74%

Draw or Balkany Zorya

54%

Winning margin

Hirnyk-Sport wins by 2+

23%

Balkany Zorya wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hirnyk-Sport 1+ goals

77%

Hirnyk-Sport 2+ goals

43%

Hirnyk-Sport 3+ goals

19%

Balkany Zorya 1+ goals

67%

Balkany Zorya 2+ goals

30%

Balkany Zorya 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hirnyk-Sport (draw refunded)

62%

Balkany Zorya (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hirnyk-Sport at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Balkany Zorya away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hirnyk-Sport attack 1.01 + Balkany Zorya defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Balkany Zorya attack 1.00 + Hirnyk-Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hirnyk-Sport scores more

46%

level

26%

Balkany Zorya scores more

28%

Hirnyk-Sport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hirnyk-Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Y. Lozovyi

45'

D. Karas← I. Bilyi

57'

V. Tropanets← Dodô

57'

V. Zlatov← D. Bolokan

61'

I. Cherednychenko← O. Zbun

64'

D. Penov← V. Gavrylyuk

66'

V. Korolkov← E. Tverdokhlib

70'

V. Khomchenko

75'

I. CherednychenkoPenalty

76'

V. Serdenyuk← Luiz Fernando

77'

S. Gerasimets← V. Khomchenko

78'

B. Veklyak

78'

B. Veklyak

82'

I. Malyshkin← O. Petrusenko

84'

V. Shukhovtsev← A. Oprya

85'

S. GerasimetsPenalty

Hirnyk-Sport

Balkany

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Khomchenk

Manager: I. Zhabchenko

45'▲D. Karas←▼I. Bilyi

61'▲I. Cherednychenko←▼O. Zbun

66'▲V. Korolkov←▼E. Tverdokhlib

77'▲S. Gerasimets←▼V. Khomchenko

82'▲I. Malyshkin←▼O. Petrusenko

Hirnyk-Sport substitutes

KarasCherednychenkoKorolkovGerasimetsMalyshkinKlimovMoiseenkoDankovichDyachenko

Manager: A. Parkhomenko

57'▲V. Tropanets←▼Dodô

57'▲V. Zlatov←▼D. Bolokan

64'▲D. Penov←▼V. Gavrylyuk

76'▲V. Serdenyuk←▼Luiz Fernando

84'▲V. Shukhovtsev←▼A. Oprya

Balkany Zorya substitutes

TropanetsZlatovPenovSerdenyukShukhovtsevDemskyiLukash

Persha Liga: Hirnyk-Sport 4–0 Balkany Zorya

Hirnyk-Sport beat Balkany Zorya 4-0 in Persha Liga on June 29, 2020.

Goals: Y. Lozovyi (24'), V. Khomchenko (70'), I. Cherednychenko (75' pen), S. Gerasimets (85' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Ynist' in Komsomol's'k.

Hirnyk-Sport vs Balkany Zorya — Persha Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Persha Liga: Hirnyk-Sport 4–0 Balkany Zorya