Balkany Zorya 0–0 Hirnyk-Sport: Result & Stats

Balkany Zorya

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hirnyk-Sport

8/31/2019

Persha Liga · Round 6Stadion im. Boris Tropanets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Balkany Zorya38%

×Draw27%

Hirnyk-Sport35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Balkany ZoryaExpected goals in this matchHirnyk-Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.21

Balkany Zorya

1.27

Hirnyk-Sport

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 68 away

0.86

creates per match

1.12

1.29

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Balkany Zorya

0.86

Hirnyk-Sport

1.12

allows per match

Balkany Zorya

1.29

Hirnyk-Sport

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balkany Zorya+0.00on par

Hirnyk-Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkany Zorya ↓

Hirnyk-Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Balkany Zorya or draw

65%

Balkany Zorya or Hirnyk-Sport

73%

Draw or Hirnyk-Sport

62%

Winning margin

Balkany Zorya wins by 2+

17%

Hirnyk-Sport wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Balkany Zorya 1+ goals

72%

Balkany Zorya 2+ goals

36%

Balkany Zorya 3+ goals

14%

Hirnyk-Sport 1+ goals

70%

Hirnyk-Sport 2+ goals

34%

Hirnyk-Sport 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Balkany Zorya (draw refunded)

52%

Hirnyk-Sport (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkany Zorya at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Hirnyk-Sport away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkany Zorya attack 0.86 + Hirnyk-Sport defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hirnyk-Sport attack 1.12 + Balkany Zorya defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Balkany Zorya scores more

38%

level

27%

Hirnyk-Sport scores more

35%

Balkany Zorya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Balkany Zorya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Y. Batyushin← V. Korolkov

55'

D. Bolokan← D. Antyukh

62'

V. Georgiev← Y. Zakharevich

72'

A. Ralyuchenko← O. Chepelyuk

80'

R. Palamar← M. Zlatov

82'

V. Odaryuk← A. Kotlyar

87'

A. Khotsyanovsky← V. Khomchenko

90'

S. Sukhanov← Y. Lozovyi

Balkany

Hirnyk-Sport

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Parkhomenko

55'▲D. Bolokan←▼D. Antyukh

62'▲V. Georgiev←▼Y. Zakharevich

80'▲R. Palamar←▼M. Zlatov

Balkany Zorya substitutes

BolokanGeorgievPalamarPenovGrancharSerdenyukTropanetsDemskyiZelenskyi

Manager: V. Mazyar

46'▲Y. Batyushin←▼V. Korolkov

72'▲A. Ralyuchenko←▼O. Chepelyuk

82'▲V. Odaryuk←▼A. Kotlyar

87'▲A. Khotsyanovsky←▼V. Khomchenko

90'▲S. Sukhanov←▼Y. Lozovyi

Hirnyk-Sport substitutes

BatyushinRalyuchenkoOdaryukKhotsyanovskySukhanovDerkachSytnykovBilous