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Hills Brumbies vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
Unknown 50', 9'
6/8/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 18Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hills Brumbies48%
×Draw23%
Central Coast II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hills Brumbies
1.85
Central Coast II
1.40

Hills Brumbies creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Hills Brumbies
1.53
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

Hills Brumbies
1.80
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

Hills Brumbies+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hills Brumbies ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hills Brumbies or draw
71%
Hills Brumbies or Central Coast II
77%
Draw or Central Coast II
52%

Winning margin

Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
26%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
84%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
55%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
28%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
75%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
41%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
62%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hills Brumbies at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hills Brumbies attack 1.53 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Hills Brumbies defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hills Brumbies scores more
48%
level
23%
Central Coast II scores more
29%

Hills Brumbies at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hills Brumbies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
50'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hills Brumbies vs Central Coast II

Hills Brumbies beat Central Coast II 2-0 in New South Wales NPL on June 8, 2024.

Goals: ? (9', 50').

The match was played at Landen Stadium in Blacktown.