Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Central Coast II vs Hills Brumbies — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Central Coast II
Central Coast II
FT
3 – 0
Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
7/24/2022New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 20Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Central Coast II53%
×Draw21%
Hills Brumbies25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast II
2.10
Hills Brumbies
1.40

Central Coast II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 61 away

creates per match

Central Coast II
2.34
Hills Brumbies
1.43

allows per match

Central Coast II
1.38
Hills Brumbies
1.87

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par
Hills Brumbies+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

Hills Brumbies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw
75%
Central Coast II or Hills Brumbies
79%
Draw or Hills Brumbies
47%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+
32%
Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals
88%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
62%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
35%
Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
75%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
41%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)
68%
Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Hills Brumbies away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.87 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 2.34 + Hills Brumbies defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.10

Hills Brumbies attack 1.43 + Central Coast II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Central Coast II scores more
53%
level
21%
Hills Brumbies scores more
25%

Central Coast II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Central Coast II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Coast II vs Hills Brumbies

Central Coast II beat Hills Brumbies 3-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.