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Hills Brumbies vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
M. Lal 60', 13' (pen)
T. Vidic 90+2'
2/15/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 2Valentine Sports Park 2 Synthetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Hills Brumbies46%
×Draw22%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hills Brumbies
1.90
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.54

Hills Brumbies creates 23% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 62 away

creates per match

Hills Brumbies
1.82
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

Hills Brumbies
1.77
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

Hills Brumbies+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hills Brumbies ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hills Brumbies or draw
68%
Hills Brumbies or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
78%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
54%

Winning margin

Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
26%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
85%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
56%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
29%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
79%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
45%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
59%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hills Brumbies at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hills Brumbies attack 1.82 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Hills Brumbies defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hills Brumbies scores more
46%
level
22%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
32%

Hills Brumbies at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hills Brumbies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. LalPenalty
60'
M. Lal
90+2'
T. Vidic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Hills Brumbies 2–1 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Hills Brumbies beat Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 15, 2025.

Goals: M. Lal (13' pen, 60'), T. Vidic (90+2').

The match was played at Valentine Sports Park 2 Synthetic in Glenwood.