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Bonnyrigg White Eagles vs Hills Brumbies — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
FT
3 – 1
Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
6/7/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 15Bonnyrigg Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles45%
×Draw23%
Hills Brumbies32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.72
Hills Brumbies
1.42

Bonnyrigg White Eagles creates 21% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 61 away

creates per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.57
Hills Brumbies
1.43

allows per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.42
Hills Brumbies
1.87

finishing

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par
Hills Brumbies+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg White Eagles ↓

Hills Brumbies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or draw
68%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles or Hills Brumbies
77%
Draw or Hills Brumbies
55%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
24%
Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
82%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
51%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
25%
Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
76%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
41%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
58%
Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

Hills Brumbies away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.87 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.57 + Hills Brumbies defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.72

Hills Brumbies attack 1.43 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
45%
level
23%
Hills Brumbies scores more
32%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bonnyrigg White Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3–1 Hills Brumbies

Bonnyrigg White Eagles beat Hills Brumbies 3-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 7, 2023.

The match was played at Bonnyrigg Sports Club in Sydney.