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Hillerød vs Skovshoved — League #123 2026

Hillerød
Hillerød
FT
1 – 0
Skovshoved
Skovshoved
R. Suhr 51'
4/17/2021League #123League #123 · Group 2 - 19Hillerød Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hillerød58%
×Draw21%
Skovshoved21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hillerød
2.11
Skovshoved
1.19

Hillerød creates 77% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hillerød
1.69
Skovshoved
1.07

allows per match

Hillerød
1.31
Skovshoved
2.53

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par
Skovshoved+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Skovshoved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw
79%
Hillerød or Skovshoved
79%
Draw or Skovshoved
42%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+
35%
Skovshoved wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals
88%
Hillerød 2+ goals
62%
Hillerød 3+ goals
35%
Skovshoved 1+ goals
70%
Skovshoved 2+ goals
33%
Skovshoved 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)
74%
Skovshoved (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Skovshoved away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.69 + Skovshoved defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.11

Skovshoved attack 1.07 + Hillerød defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hillerød scores more
58%
level
21%
Skovshoved scores more
21%

Hillerød at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
R. Suhr
56'
G. Therkildsen
86'
M. S. Petersen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hillerød vs Skovshoved

Hillerød beat Skovshoved 1-0 in League #123 on April 17, 2021.

Goals: R. Suhr (51').

The match was played at Hillerød Stadion in Hillerød.