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Hillerød vs Skovshoved — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hillerød
Hillerød
FT
2 – 1
Skovshoved
Skovshoved
8/1/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hillerød Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hillerød44%
×Draw23%
Skovshoved34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hillerød
1.81
Skovshoved
1.56

Hillerød creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hillerød
1.63
Skovshoved
1.00

allows per match

Hillerød
2.13
Skovshoved
2.00

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par
Skovshoved+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Skovshoved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw
66%
Hillerød or Skovshoved
77%
Draw or Skovshoved
56%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+
23%
Skovshoved wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals
84%
Hillerød 2+ goals
54%
Hillerød 3+ goals
27%
Skovshoved 1+ goals
79%
Skovshoved 2+ goals
46%
Skovshoved 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)
57%
Skovshoved (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Skovshoved away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.63 + Skovshoved defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Skovshoved attack 1.00 + Hillerød defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hillerød scores more
44%
level
23%
Skovshoved scores more
34%

Hillerød at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Hillerød 2–1 Skovshoved

Hillerød beat Skovshoved 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 1, 2020.

The match was played at Hillerød Stadion in Hillerød.